No one can be sure when a recession has begun, or when it has ended. The NBER designates the beginning of a recession months after it has started and designates its ending months (or sometimes years) after it has ended.
An inaccurate forecast of whether or not there is a recession today will not be proved false for 12 months or more. Read this article, which was published a month ago.
Ben Bernanke's book on The Great Depression.
January 21, 2008
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